Monday, December 31, 2012

China's Demographic Time Bomb

In a place where individuals saved for their own retirement, such as Europe, population decline is of little concern to the elderly.  In China, however, where children are expected to provide for their elders, previous generations used to hedge their bets for retirement by having as many children as possible.  This led to explosive population growth until the introduction of China's one-child policy, which cut birth rates dramatically.
The one-child policy does not necessarily limit Chinese families to one child- fines are applied for every subsequent child.  Because of the increased expense of each child, and because that single child is expected to have the economic resources to provide for both parents in their old age, the parents often invest what the money they can into improving their child's earning potential, often by sending them to America or Europe for college.  A growing trend among these expatriate Chinese students is to stay in the West because of government oppression and limited opportunities back in China.  This has helped to solve the youth deficit in places like Europe, but it has only exacerbated the Chinese ,demographic situation, because many times the young immigrants cut ties and do not send money back to family in the old country.
In some ways, Chinese youth are saddled with the same financial burdens to their elders as Western youth, but the two situations differ in that in China this is not so much entrenched in public institutions as in a system of individual honor.  However, the decline of traditional Confucian values and growing influence of Western individualism has led many young people to feel that it is no longer their duty to care for their elders.  In short, the worst case scenario has happened for a large part of the elderly population in China, and the significant investment that they have poured into their children may not even be repaid.
European retirement programs have the illusion of lifting the burden of paying for retirees off the shoulders of the young, but in reality the young will be the group most hurt by these policies.  The debt has simply been made public- in which case the young, who are the most productive members of society, will still be taxed and will likely pay just as much as they did before.  One main benefit of the European retirement system as opposed to the Chinese system is that children are forced to help their parent financially.  A major negative aspect of it, however, is that the children of parents who were responsible enough to pay for retirement will still have to pay is if their parents had been irresponsible.

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